Say football three times fast.

Now you’re ready for the weekend.

Not only do we have another full Saturday slate of college pigskin, the first NFL Sunday of the season is here, too. 

Last weekend’s picks went 1-2, and I’m still not sure how Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele balled out like a young Tua Tagovailoa in his first career start for the Golden Bears. Tip of the cap.

Remember, this isn’t the place for locks or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.

Let’s go to work.

2025 Record: (2-3, -1.4 units)

Illinois (-3, O/U 49) @ Duke

The Illini will continue to be a public darling until they eventually slip up. This will not be an easy game against Manny Diaz’s defense, which usually takes away what you do well. I can’t wait to watch the chess match between Diaz and Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer. If Darian Mensah comes to play for Duke, the Blue Devils can pull the upset as a very small underdog.  

PICK: Duke (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Kansas @ Missouri (-6.5, O/U 51)

Don’t sleep on the Jayhawks. Last season didn’t go as planned in Lawrence, but Kansas finished strong down the stretch. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is as healthy as he’s been and the KU defense is better than people realize. You’re still paying a Missouri tax from last year’s 10-3 campaign, too. I think this one goes down to the wire in Columbia between these two rivals.

PICK: Missouri (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright

Kent State @ Texas Tech (-48, O/U 58.5)

It sounds like Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton is going to play. Some people will say it “doesn’t matter,” but it does. I want QB1 out there for the first half before head coach Joey McGuire inevitably goes to QB2 Will Hammond for the second half. Kent State is the worst power rated team in the FBS and this is a rout, assuming Texas Tech keeps its foot on the gas.

PICK: Texas Tech (-48) to win by more than 48 points

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots (-2.5, O/U 44)

Is there a trendier team than the Patriots? Everywhere I look, it’s Drake Maye this and Mike Vrabel that. And some pundits are even predicting a playoff berth. I see a four-win team from last year starting two rookies on the left side of the offensive line and a quarterback operating with minimal weapons. Maybe I’m wrong. Maxx Crosby should have a big day in the trenches.

PICK: Raiders (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6, O/U 45.5)

Wise guys cleaned the +7s and +6.5s off the board the last couple of weeks, and it’s difficult to ignore the financial respect for the underdog here. The Commanders are mostly viewed as a playoff team and young quarterback Jayden Daniels has the fifth-shortest odds for NFL MVP. But the Giants have a sneaky good “D” and Russell Wilson has some juice left in the tank.  

PICK: Giants (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points, or win outright

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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