The 2025 NBA Draft lottery was truly wild. Three teams outside the top four made huge leaps, including the Dallas Mavericks, who heard their names called as the final team of the night after entering Monday with a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery. 

This result is a get-out-of-jail-free card for the Mavericks after they traded Luka Doncic to the Lakers at February’s trade deadline, and lost their fanbase’s faith because of the decision. This stroke of luck will certainly bring their faithful back.  

Dallas will now, presumably, pair Duke prospect Cooper Flagg with a strong core of veterans such as Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving. While Irving tore his ACL in early March, the Mavericks are now set up to compete in the present, and the future. 

The San Antonio Spurs got the second pick, which had a 6.3% probability of happening. And the Philadelphia 76ers rounded out the top 3, after entering the night with a 10.6% chance of making that leap. 

The Mavericks, winning with a 1.8% chance, are the fourth-lowest probability team to ever win the NBA Draft lottery since it was created in 1985.

They are now on the clock with the 2025 NBA Draft set for June 25.

Which NBA teams have a chance of getting the No. 1 pick?

2025 NBA Draft order

1. Dallas Mavericks

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Philadelphia 76ers

4. Charlotte Hornets

5. Utah Jazz

6. Washington Wizards

7. New Orleans Pelicans

8. Brooklyn Nets

9. Toronto Raptors

10. Houston Rockets

11. Portland Trail Blazers

12. Chicago Bulls

13. Atlanta Hawks 

14. San Antonio Spurs

15. Oklahoma City Thunder

16. Orlando Magic

17. Minnesota Timberwolves 

18. Washington Wizards

19. Brooklyn Nets 

20. Miami Heat

21. Utah Jazz

22. Atlanta Hawks 

23. Indiana Pacers 

24. Oklahoma City Thunder

25. Orlando Magic

26. Brooklyn Nets

27. Brooklyn Nets 

28. Boston Celtics

29. Phoenix Suns

30. Los Angeles Clippers 

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Although the lottery consists of 14 spots, only 13 teams have a shot at the No. 1 pick this year. That’s because the Atlanta Hawks‘ pick goes to the San Antonio Spurs, who are already in the lottery pool. 

The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets lead the way with the best odds to win the lottery at 14% each. The New Orleans Pelicans have the fourth-best odds, at 12.5%. The Philadelphia 76ers have probability of getting the top pick is 10.5%, but if two teams with a lower probability jump them, they lose the pick to Oklahoma City. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a 9.0% chance and the Toronto Raptors have a 7.5% chance at winning the lottery. The Spurs, who won the lottery in 2023 to select Victor Wembanyama, have a 6.0% chance at getting the first pick with their own first-rounder.

Next is the Houston Rockets at 3.8%. Despite ending 52-30, with the second-best record in the Western Conference, they have the rights to the Phoenix Suns‘ first-round draft pick regardless of where it lands. The Portland Trail Blazers sit just below the Rockets at 3.7%, and while neither of them are expecting to win Monday’s lottery, there is some hope as the Hawks carried a 3% chance into the 2024 NBA Draft lottery, and won it. 

[Related: 5 things to watch for on NBA Draft lottery day]

The Dallas Mavericks find themselves in the lottery a year after making the Western Conference Finals for obvious reasons — the Luka Doncic trade — and have a 1.8% chance at winning the lottery, and with it, their fanbase’s support. 

The Chicago Bulls‘ probability of winning the lottery is 1.7%, while the Sacramento Kings have a 0.8% chance. The Spurs’ second first-rounder, which they acquired from Atlanta in the Dejounte Murray trade, has the worst odds of jumping to No. 1, at 0.7%.

 

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