Holiday weekend forecast: Flash flood and severe storms threaten Southern U.S.

Last Updated: February 12, 2026By

As much of the South has been experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions, an area of low pressure is expected to bring several inches of much-needed rain to parts of the region from Friday through Sunday.

However, this rainfall will also increase the risk of flash flooding, with the threat likely to continue into the weekend.

So far this season, nearly 20 locations are experiencing their driest winter on record, with over 200 locations seeing their top 10 driest on record.

South weekend storm overview
(FOX Weather)

 

With the majority of these locations in the Southeast, some major cities across the South are sitting nearly 6 inches below average rainfall, with Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia all experiencing severe to extreme drought. 

MILLIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FACE BREWING CROSS-COUNTRY STORM AS FLOOD THREAT INCREASES

A widespread 1–3 inches of rain is expected through Sunday.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, an upper-level disturbance will move out of Baja California and into the Southwest and Southern Plains this weekend.

As it emerges into the southern U.S., it will develop an area of low pressure that tracks into the Southeast.

Southern rain forecast Friday through Monday
(FOX Weather)

 

As the system organizes, widespread rain, and even some thunderstorms, look likely across the region. 

Currently, 1–2 inches of rain are possible across the Southern Plains to the Southeast coast. 

CROSS-COUNTRY STORM TO SOAK SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND

Localized totals of 2–3 inches may occur in parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

A flash flood risk has developed across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on Friday, currently sitting at a Level 1 of 4 risk.

Southern flash flood threat Friday through Sunday
(FOX WEather)

 

The risk area extends into Arkansas from Saturday into Sunday morning, where a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk is now present. 

By Sunday, the threat is forecast to shift into the Southeast, with a Level 1 of 4 risk. 

CALIFORNIA SLAMMED BY MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AND SNOW, AS MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS

A Level 1 of 5 severe weather risk is set across West Texas late Friday as the low-pressure system develops.

While the atmosphere contains abundant warmth and moisture, low storm energy is expected to limit the overall severe potential.

Southern severe storm threat on Saturday
(FOX Weather)

 

Severe storms are expected to continue Saturday across Eastern Texas/Oklahoma and portions of Arkansas, with the most severe storms likely to develop along a line and sweep through major metros such as Dallas, Houston and San Antonio on Saturday afternoon.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

The FOX Forecast Center said damaging winds look to be the biggest threat with any storm that develops.


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