2025 CFB Odds: UCLA Takes Down Penn State in Historic Upset

Last Updated: October 5, 2025By

UCLA did the unthinkable.

A week after losing a thriller to Oregon in overtime, James Franklin & Co. lost to an 0-4 UCLA team. The Bruins fired head coach Deshaun Foster three games into the season, and named former Fresno State head coach Tim Skipper as the interim. 

The Bruins entered as a 24.5-point underdog, with +1300 odds to win. Prior to today, there had been four teams all-time to have been 0-4 or worse and beat an AP top 10 team:

Below we’ve further broken down just how historic this upset is, from both a statistical and odds perspective. Let’s take a look:

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  • Entering today, UCLA had lost 16 games in a row vs AP top 10 opponents; their last such win came in 2010 vs Texas— in that game, the Bruins completed 5-of-9 passes (Johnathan Franklin had 19 rushes for 118 yards).
  • Teams that were 0-4 entered the day 0-24 vs AP top 10 opponents since 1978.
  • Entering today, teams that closed as 24+ point underdogs were 28-144-2 (W-L-T) against AP top 10 teams since 1978.
  • Entering today, teams that were 24+ point underdogs were 6-244-1 against Big Ten teams ranked in the AP top 10 since 1978.
  • Penn State is now 1-17 under James Franklin when trailing by 20+ points, the lone win coming in the 2016 Big Ten Championship game vs Wisconsin (down 28-7, won 38-31).
  • UCLA was the only FBS team never to lead in a game this season entering today.
  • Entering today, Nico Iamaleava’s career high in rush yards was 65; he finished the day with 128.
  • Nico Iamaleava was responsible for 5 TDs (3 rush, 2 pass) for the first time in his career.

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