Is just making the College Football Playoff good enough for the richest program in the sport?

After back-to-back playoff appearances, including two wins and a semifinal berth last season, the Texas Longhorns look to finally win the championship in 2025. 

Texas, just like its friends in the upper tier of the sport, does not lose games that it should win. The Horns were 11-1 with a loss to Georgia in the 2024 regular season. Then they went 11-1 in 2023 with a loss to 6-0 Oklahoma on the final play of the game. 

That’s it — two regular-season losses in the last two seasons.

Now, after two years of hype and 90 passing attempts last season, Texas turns to Arch Manning as the starter. He’s shown elite physical abilities, so the hype is warranted — but being a first-time starter does come with some bumps and bruises. 

The Texas offensive line was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award last year, but that unit still had moments where it wasn’t as clean as expected. It now has to replace four starters, but waiting are all the top-tier recruits and portal players. 

Texas continues to lose receivers to the draft and Steve Sarkisian has replacements waiting on the roster there, too. The Longhorns run game has been something they can lean on. The offense is loaded with unproven talent, but Sark’s track record, plus the talent of Manning, should get them humming quickly.

On the defensive side, Texas sent five guys to the NFL, but just like the offense, that side of the ball is retooling with the highest level of talent. 

Linebacker Anthony Hill will be the anchor of the defense, with freshman All-American Colin Simmons as the lead pass rusher. 

Texas went to the portal for defensive linemen and the secondary. The Longhorns have a track record of being able to develop on that side of the ball and I trust Pete Kwiatkowski and staff to have this defense playing at an elite level again this season.

If we look at the Texas schedule with the assumption that upsets are rare, the squad has two games right now that are toss-ups. 

Texas opens the season at Ohio State and then plays Georgia in the middle of November on the road. Ohio State must replace so much production on both lines and at quarterback, so catching them to start the season could favor Texas here. 

I do worry about the Longhorns’ ability to win at Georgia after going 0-2 against the Bulldogs last season. So if they split these games, Texas is closer to winning 11 games than nine. A split would allow for an upset and the Longhorns still going Over 9.5 wins. 

Games against Florida and Texas A&M will be difficult, but Florida has questions at quarterback at the moment and I don’t think A&M is good enough to win at Texas right now.

If given a choice between the Over or Under on the Texas season, I lean toward the Over. 

PICK: Texas Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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