A low pressure center will bring multiple days of flash flooding threats to Florida before settling in the Gulf of America, where some forecast models indicate the system could undergo tropical development.

FORT MYERS, Fla. — The “Sunshine” part of Florida’s state nickname is taking a break next week as forecasters instead watch for days of heavy rains and even some potential for some tropical mischief in the Gulf later in the week.

The culprit begins as a weak non-tropical area of low pressure that will move off the Southeast coast, across northern Florida, and eventually into the Gulf late next week, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

With the system potentially spending multiple days over warm waters of the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic, it will need to be watched for tropical development.

But before the storm even thinks of getting onto the National Hurricane Center’s plate, the slow-moving system is expected to drag several inches of rain across central and southern Florida, with the heaviest amounts forecast for Monday. 

Overall rainfall totals for the week could reach 3-5 inches or more south of the Interstate 4 corridor. But some thunderstorms will have the potential to drop between 1-3 inches per hour, and pockets of flash flooding appear possible starting Sunday and continuing through midweek.  Exactly where the best chance of storms and flooding sets up each day will become more apparent as the event gets closer.

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It’s later in the week when the system enters the toasty waters of the eastern Gulf of America that attention turns to tropical development. So far, forecast models do not indicate a significant threat, but a handful of model runs do indicate the potential for development in the Gulf, the FOX Forecast Center says.

Tropical outlook for late July.

Forecasters will be monitoring several factors that will determine the system’s ultimate fate, including the amount of wind shear present as the low heads into the Gulf, and how much time the system will spend soaking up energy from the warm waters.

“For now, we are in wait-and-see mode, with no credible threat to react to at this time,” the FOX Forecast Center said. “That said, it is a pattern worth watching, and watch it, we will.”