There’s the potential for some tropical troubles off the Southeast coast as millions prepare for the Fourth of July holiday, and regardless of tropical development some flooding rain and thunderstorms are headed for Florida. FOX Weather Meteorologists Stephen Morgan and Haley Meier break down the forecast on June 30, 2025.

TAMPA – Millions of people are set to travel this week as the U.S. gets set to celebrate the Fourth of July holiday, but beach plans may need to be put on hold for those heading to Florida as flooding rain and thunderstorms are set to threaten outdoor plans this week.

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This graphic shows an area to watch for possible tropical development later this week and into the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

(FOX Weather)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the Southeast coast this week, and an area of low pressure could then form and develop tropical or subtropical characteristics off the Southeast U.S. coast, over Florida or in the eastern Gulf.

Right now, the NHC is saying there is a low chance of development over the next week.

Regardless of tropical development, it’s not going to be the best week weather-wise in the Sunshine State.

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This graphic shows the forecast rain totals in the Southeast through the middle of this week.

(FOX Weather)

According to the FOX Forecast Center, several inches of rain could fall across the Southeast this week, especially in Florida.

Coastal areas from the eastern Florida Panhandle southward through the Big Bend and into the Sarasota area will likely see the highest rain totals this week. Parts of Florida’s Big Bend from about the Perry area through Cedar Key and the Tampa and St. Petersburg areas could see upwards of 5-8 inches of rain, with some locally higher amounts.

Heavy rain is also expected along the Atlantic coast of Florida from south of Jacksonville through Daytona Beach, as well as in communities along the Space Coast from Cocoa Beach to Melbourne.

Orlando is also likely going to pick up a few inches of rain this week.