An area to watch with a low potential for tropical development is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean and southern Bay of Campeche in the coming days.

A pair of disturbances over and near the western Caribbean could trigger a tropical depression to develop in the extreme southern Gulf in two or three days. One disturbance is already over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, and right on its heels another robust disturbance is approaching Belize.

The curve of the coastline in the extreme southern Gulf, known as the Bay of Campeche, is known to help systems develop spin. There’s no sign at this point that anything especially strong will develop—it doesn’t appear there would be time—but heavy rain and gusty winds will spread from Honduras to southern Mexico, whether a depression develops or not.

An area to watch has formed in the southern Gulf. 

(NOAA / FOX Weather)

The bubble of conducive atmosphere that has been supporting record development offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico is forecast by some of the computer models to momentarily bulge into the southern Gulf. That might not happen, and the disturbances might track over land, if they come together at all. That adds up to significant uncertainty, thus the odds of development from the National Hurricane Center are very low.

A disturbance in the Gulf could develop over the next few days. 

(NOAA / FOX Weather)

The tropical belt from Africa across the Caribbean and into the Gulf remains hostile to development. We’ll see if the unsupportive pattern briefly lifts out of the southwestern Gulf late in the weekend and early next week.

Flooding and heavy rain with the possibility of landslides in mountainous areas will be the threat in Central America. Otherwise, we are good to go at least through the July 4 holiday.