Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby, edging out Journalism. Then in the Preakness Stakes, which Sovereignty skipped, Journalism rolled to victory.

The two will do battle once more on Saturday in the Belmont Stakes on FOX, to cap the 2025 Triple Crown.

So, Belmont Stakes odds come down to a two-horse race, right?

Well, maybe not.

“I don’t think it’ll be a two-horse race. I don’t see it that way. There are other horses who could surprise,” said Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings.

Avello, who’s been around horse racing much of his life and is one of the keenest betting minds in the sport, serves up his insights on 2025 Belmont Stakes odds.

Battle of Saratoga

For the second straight year, the Belmont Stakes is at Saratoga, while Belmont Park undergoes renovations. Monday’s post-position draw saw Journalism land the No. 7 gate in an eight-horse field, while Sovereignty will break from the No. 2 gate.

Morning Line odds then went up, with Journalism an 8/5 favorite, narrowly ahead of Sovereignty at 2/1 for Saturday’s 7:07 p.m. ET post time on FOX. There’s plenty to like about both horses, most notably that each already has a Triple Crown win this year.

“I think Journalism and Sovereignty will both be bet pretty heavily. They’re both gonna take their share of money,” Avello said. “But Baeza was a really close third in the Kentucky Derby. He’s getting better. He’ll take some money.”

As the 4/1 third choice, Baeza isn’t too far behind Journalism and Sovereignty.

Rain and Rest

Saratoga could see rain Saturday, though Avello notes that’s not necessarily a disadvantage for the top two horses.

But another factor could be part of the equation: Like Sovereignty, Baeza is well-rested after skipping the Preakness. On the flip side, Journalism ran the Derby on May 3, then the Preakness on May 17, and will now run the 1.25-mile Belmont.

“Sovereignty and Journalism have both run good in the slop,” Avello said. “I think Journalism is a great horse. But running three races over five weeks might take a lot out of a 3-year-old.”

Dark Horse Bids

Avello pointed to two other horses he thinks are worth a look in the win pool for Belmont Stakes odds.

“Rodriguez likes to go to the front, and so does Crudo. Those two horses should be on the front end early, and we’ll see how far they can go,” Avello said.

Rodriguez was set to run the Kentucky Derby, but had to withdraw a couple of days out with a hoof issue. So he’s back and going on plenty of rest as the 6/1 fourth choice.

Crudo didn’t run the Derby. But on Preakness Saturday at Pimlico, he ran on the undercard in the Sir Barton Stakes and rolled to a 7.5-length victory. Crudo is at 15/1 odds, so an upset there would represent a nice payout.

Avello also mentioned 10/1 fifth choice Hill Road and 30/1 long shot Heart of Honor.

“Hill Road won the Peter Pan Stakes, and he was third in the Tampa Bay Derby,” Avello said. “He’s ridden by one of the best jockeys, Irad Ortiz Jr., and he has one of the best trainers, Chad Brown.

“I could see Heart of Honor maybe getting third. So you might want to use him in your trifectas.”

Heart of Honor is 30/1 to win the Belmont, after skipping the Derby and taking fifth in the Preakness.

Free Money

In both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, DraftKings put up significant bonus money for those betting via DK’s horse racing app. Deemed King of the Track, the bonus was $1 million in the Derby and $250,000 in the Preakness.

By opting in on the app, then making at least a $5 to-win bet on a horse, customers got a chance at a share of the bonus money. The caveat, of course, is that your horse had to win.

In the Derby, DraftKings paid out an additional $291 to every King of the Track bettor who wagered on Sovereignty to win. In the Preakness, all those who took Journalism to win claimed an additional $41 apiece, along with whatever their bet paid out.

Belmont’s King of the Track bonus is $200,000. It’s free money, so if you’re going to bet on the race winner regardless, and DK is an option in your state, then you might as well take your shot.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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