The Eastern Conference finals continue Saturday after the New York Knicks secured a 111-94 Game 5 win over the Indiana Pacers, forcing the series to be extended.

The Pacers will have another chance to reach the NBA Finals, and this time at home. With that in mind, I see two wagers that have value right now. Let’s dive into it.

Knicks @ Pacers

The Knicks head to Indiana fresh off a Game 5 win at home, where they controlled the game from start to finish. The Pacers, still leading the series 3-2, are looking to close out the Knicks in Game 6. 

While it’s not a must-win game for Indiana, I expect it to come out with its best effort to end the series at home. 

In Game 5, the Pacers’ starters struggled to get going, with all players finishing well below their averages. Tyrese Haliburton managed only eight points, Andrew Nembhard scored six, Myles Turner had six and Aaron Nesmith, who played just 16 minutes, totaled just three points. Pascal Siakam was the only starter to score over 10 points, finishing with 15 in over 34 minutes. On defense, the Knicks played like they had to win, knowing their season was on the line, but I’m wagering on this game as if the Pacers will play with that “win or go home” mentally. 

The Pacers are 6-1 in covering the first quarter at home during the postseason and are 3-0 off a loss. The only close first quarter came in Game 3 against Cleveland when the Cavs, facing a 2-0 series deficit, desperately needed to win Game 3. Given the poor stats from the Indiana starters, teams that are coming off of a poor performance often start fast in the next game. We can go back to Game 4 to make that point. The Pacers lost 106-100 in the previous game and beat the Knicks by eight points in the following first quarter. The Knicks have also been a poor starting team in the postseason. Out of 22 playoff games, they’ve only covered the first-quarter spread seven times—four of those after a loss.

PICK: Pacers (-1) to lead by more than one point after the first quarter 

Tyrese Haliburton Over 14.5 rebounds/assists combined

Haliburton did not play well in Game 5, finishing with just eight points, six assists and two rebounds. His combined total for those stats was the second-lowest since the Pacers lost Game 3 to the Cavs in the conference semifinals. He was not aggressive in moving around the court or creating shots for his teammates. 

When he’s not as active shooting the ball, with only seven field goal attempts in Game 5, he’s often less active on the glass. When his teammates don’t make shots, Haliburton is less inclined to take part in distributing the ball. Since I believe the Pacers will shoot better — as teams often do at home — Haliburton will have more chances for assists. I did not play the Over on points, rebounds and assists combined because, as we saw in Games 2 and 3, he can still be impactful without scoring. 

His impact is here. I expect him to bounce back on Saturday night.

PICK: Haliburton (-110) Over 14.5 rebounds and assists

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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