It has been a great few years to be a starting NFL quarterback.

For all the criticism and physical abuse that signal-callers endure, they have massive paychecks waiting for them at the end of the week — and at the end of the season. Massive game checks. Massive signing bonuses. Massive guaranteed sums. 

The economy of the QB contract is … massive.

With Brock Purdy‘s recent extension, no less than 15 teams now pay their starting quarterback $45 million or more per year. So I decided to evaluate those contracts in terms of value. Did the teams overpay? Get a discount? Find the right value? 

Let’s take a look.

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $60 million
Terms: four years, $240 million

If you want confirmation that Prescott is overpaid, look only at the fact that no one has exceeded his average annual value in nearly one year since he signed his deal. This offseason, Josh Allen probably could have asked for $60 million or more per year, but the QB settled for a lesser sum to prioritize winning by limiting his footprint on the salary cap. So Prescott remains at the top, even after multiple new deals for elite QBs. That speaks to the overpayment.

Prescott is one of the most prolific passers in the NFL, but he’s 2-5 in the playoffs and has never made it past the divisional round. The Cowboys are always a circus — and a very profitable one as a huge international brand — so in that sense, Prescott was absolutely right to demand more from the team. But has Prescott done anything to justify his pay before or after his extension? Nope.

How it’s aged: Overpaid 

Signed in: 2023
AAV: $55 million
Terms: five years, $275 million

Ahead of the 2023 season, and after a Super Bowl appearance in 2022, Burrow reset the market. His results were mixed in 2023, and he ended his season on IR with a wrist injury. But his 2024 season was a fascinating demonstration of man vs. team. The Bengals nearly dragged Burrow into irrelevance, and Burrow nearly dragged them back to relevance. Cincinnati finished 9-8, just out of the playoff picture. And Burrow deserved serious consideration for MVP. He was that good. 

It’s a testament to his value that — in a season that looked massively dysfunctional — he finished with 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Burrow is special. He is the type of name-your-price quarterback where this number, which in any other context would look seismic, is somehow reasonable. 

How it’s aged: Discounted

Signed in: 2025
AAV: $55 million
Terms: six years, $330 million

Why didn’t Allen reset the market this offseason? He signed a deal that matched what Burrow got back in 2023. If Burrow is a name-your-price quarterback, then so is Allen, fresh off his MVP-winning season. But every offseason, the QB market tends to charge forward. Allen could easily be the highest-paid QB on the planet. Instead, he took a still-massive-but-less-disruptive sum to help his team continue its push to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC.

Technically, this deal hasn’t aged. But it’s already a discount. That’s clear from the jump.

There’s a funny game of chicken going on between Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Both guys will be fabulously wealthy when their careers end. But their competition on the field has led them to play a game of limbo off the field, trying to cash in without massively disrupting their teams’ payrolls.

How it’s aged: Discounted

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $55 million
Terms: four years, $220 million

There might not be another NFL quarterback who had higher highs and lower lows than Love in 2024. He suffered injuries to his MCL, groin and elbow. He also looked erratic as a thrower and decision-maker. It was a constant battle to assess how many of his ups and downs were attributable to the injuries.

The picture for Love got complicated when the Packers had to play Malik Willis. The backup won both his starts by playing conservative, turnover-free football — the opposite of the way Love plays. The Packers invested in Love after one good season as a starter. The risk was what we saw in 2024.

There’s a good chance he’ll be healthier and more consistent in 2025. He should develop. He should evolve. He should convert more of his talent into wins. But we’ve seen the careers of so many talented passers go awry at this phase. There’s a real chance Love continues to put the ball in harm’s way — and, in turn, occasionally interfere with the Packers’ playoff hopes.

I’m willing to give this contract more time. I’m willing to give Love more time. But I can’t help but be worried about where things are headed.

How it’s aged: Overpaid

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $55 million
Terms: five years, $275 million

Lawrence was up there with Caleb Williams and Andrew Luck as one of the best college football prospects of the past 15 years. But since entering the NFL, Lawrence hasn’t accomplished … anything. If the Packers were hasty to invest in Love, the Jaguars were borderline foolish to put all their chips on the table for Lawrence. I get it: It’s the way things go in the NFL. Lawrence got a new contract, if only because he was entering the fourth year of his deal. That’s when he could have held out and created negative headlines around a team that does nothing but generate negative headlines. 

Lawrence hasn’t exactly generated positive headlines. In 10 games last year, he threw for 2,045 yards, 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He had a 2-8 record. His sack rate (5.96%) was the highest of his career. There were too many throws where he and the receiver appeared to be on totally different pages. There were too many plays where Lawrence looked exactly like the kid he was on Day 1 coming out of Clemson. He was a great prospect. But he still looks like a prospect.

How it’s aged: Dramatically overpaid

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $53.1 million
Terms: four years, $212.4 million

It feels almost criminal to criticize Tua’s production — and for the Dolphins to invest in Tua. The two sides were in a tough situation, where Tagovailoa was managing the concussions that changed the trajectory of his and Miami’s 2023 season. When he was on the field, the Dolphins were one of the most prolific offenses in the league. When he was out, Miami fell to pieces. That seemed to justify the team’s decision to pay him big money.

Last season, Tagovailoa was not nearly as effective as a passer. He was also not healthy, suffering yet another concussion. It’s likely Tua won’t get better as a QB. He’ll simply stay at this plateau. At this juncture, the Dolphins are approaching a boiling point. Tyreek Hill seems to want out. Tagovailoa has only been successful with Tyreek, and that’s because Tyreek gets the most out of a quick-game master like Tua. If Hill goes, might things get worse for Tua? (Hint: Yes, almost definitely.)

How it’s aged: Overpaid

Signed in: 2025
AAV: $53 million
Terms: five years, $265 million

I wrote during the regular season that the 49ers should stall negotiations with Purdy for the entire 2025 season. I suggested they endure the awkwardness and force Purdy to prove himself. Instead, they just paid him $265 million following a season in which he didn’t look worth it. If the 49ers had waited, they might have paid him $7 million more per year. But at least they’d have had a clearer picture if he’s going to be the guy we saw in 2023.

Right now, it’s not clear.

The 49ers have invested in Purdy at a low point in his career, even if his contract doesn’t exactly reflect it. Purdy is a fun story — and a fun player to watch when his supporting cast is healthy. I just worry about what will come over the next few years as the talent begins to evaporate around him, in large part because of his mega-contract.

How it’s aged: … it hasn’t yet

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $53 million
Terms: four years, $212 million

There’s an interesting point where a perennial playoff contender (like the Lions) starts working quietly in the offseason. It’s often because the quarterback is taking up so much cap space that the team’s GM must work with fairly anonymous acquisitions. The big splashes are few and far between. It’s more about getting players who are the right fit.

The quarterback makes a big difference in maximizing the talent of those around him. So here comes the next phase of Goff’s career. He failed to take the next step in Los Angeles. Sean McVay saw the plateau and traded Goff. Detroit, however, seems to be working out ways to make Goff better. Statistically, it’s a whole new world for the pocket passer. From a salary standpoint, it’s a whole new world, too. But now is the time for him to become a field general, like Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning and — dare I say it — Tom Brady. 

From now on, Goff has to be the smartest player on the field. We saw some of that in 2024. We’ll need to see even more in 2025.

How it’s aged: Just right

Signed in: 
AAV: $53 million
Terms: five years, $262.5 million

When last season started, few expected the Chargers to make the playoffs. But then when they did, few expected a one-and-done postseason from L.A. So it was a roller coaster of expectations for Herbert in his first year under Jim Harbaugh.

Here’s another example of how weird it was. Herbert had a quiet but efficient year: 3,870 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, three interceptions in 17 games. But in that postseason appearance? Four interceptions — more than his regular-season total! 

So here’s the bottom line: Herbert is a really talented quarterback whose supporting cast is back on the upswing. Herbert and Harbaugh appear to be a perfect match. That playoff game was bad, but the other 17 games were impressive, albeit conservative. I’m giving Herbert a slight pass for the postseason meltdown. Instead, I’m saying: How did he even get the Chargers there?

How it’s aged: Just right

Signed in: 2023
AAV: $52.5 million
Terms: five years, $260 million, 

Here’s a guy who could easily be sitting up there with Prescott — or, at the very least, with Burrow and Allen. Certainly, Jackson was sitting atop those other signal-callers when he received the AP MVP for the 2023 season, his second such award. Hate on him if you want. Compare him to Mahomes if you want. Jackson is one of the most dominant football players in the league. The Ravens are enjoying all that impressive play without having to pay top dollar.

How it’s aged: Discount

Signed in: 2023
AAV: $51 million
Terms: five years, $255 million

Things change fast. If you had asked me about four weeks into last season, I would have said this deal was an overpay. But here we are. Hurts has a Lombardi Trophy and a Super Bowl MVP. The QB has been to two Super Bowls in three years. There’s a chance this is the beginning of an Eagles dynasty. 

You might not like Hurts’ counting stats. You might look at his passing numbers and wonder why he can’t be more like Burrow. When you put Hurts at quarterback, you’re thinking outside the box. Coach Nick Sirianni is getting unique value out of a unique football player, one who had 32 touchdowns (18 passing, 14 rushing) during the 2024 regular season — and 10 more during Philadelphia’s four-game postseason run (5 passing, 5 rushing).

Hurts’ best game of the season was arguably his Super Bowl performance. He was 17-of-22 for 221 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He had 11 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown. 

Ask any team around the league if they’d pay their QB what the Eagles paid Hurts to finish the year with a Super Bowl MVP. Every single one would sign on.

How it’s aged: Discount

Signed in: 2022
AAV: $46.1 million
Terms: five years, $230 million

FOX Sports’ Emmanuel Acho has often called Justin Herbert “a social media quarterback.” That’s not how I see it. How I see it: That’s Kyler Murray. 

He is as physically gifted as any player in the league. He plays with flair — even his scrambling is dramatic because of the way he runs. He makes highlight plays that are truly transcendent. But he can’t figure out how to convert those big plays into wins. Ultimately, Murray is 1) either incapable of putting the team on his back or 2) incapable of picking the right moments to put the team on his back or 3) both. 

Unless he turns a corner with his decision-making and patience — this season — he might find himself on the hot seat in Arizona.

How it’s aged: Overpaid

Signed in: 2022
AAV: $46 million
Terms: five years, $230 million

There is no context for how bad this contract is. It’s the worst. Without comparison. Without a doubt. And the financial agreement was a part of a bigger transaction, which included trade compensation. Which only makes it worse. Without comparison. Without a doubt. There might not be a single worse transaction than the Watson trade for another decade. 

It’s not just that it was a massive, market-setting deal. It’s that the Browns guaranteed every dollar to Watson, which is why they’ll be dealing with the salary cap ramifications for years to come.

How it’s aged: Historically overpaid

Signed in: 2024
AAV: $45 million
Terms: four years, $180 million

Here’s another tremendously bad deal. It doesn’t quite compare to Watson’s contract, but Cousins got an incredibly spendy offer last year from Atlanta, which then proceeded to select Michael Penix Jr. in the top 10 of the draft. When Cousins suffered a rough start to his 2024 season — which anyone could’ve predicted, given he was coming off an Achilles injury — the Falcons benched him. Now, he’s sitting as a $45-million backup. It’s hard to imagine he’ll start the season on Atlanta’s roster. I expect it’s only a matter of time before he’s traded.

How it’s aged: Historically overpaid

Signed in: 2020
AAV: $45 million
Terms: 10 years, $450 million

There aren’t many athletes worth betting a half-billion dollars on, but Mahomes is one of them. He has made that clear since 2020. You know what he’s accomplished: AFC Champions Games, Super Bowls, Super Bowl MVPs. 

If Mahomes hit the open market in free agency, what would an NFL team pay him: $80 million per year? Is that even enough? 

So yes, the Chiefs will happily keep him for $45 million per year (or whatever number he wants) for the foreseeable future. And given how much Mahomes can make off the field, he can keep taking discounts to help his team win more Super Bowls, which will help him keep making more money off the field.

How it’s aged: Historically discounted

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.  

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