“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

There are just a few months left until kickoff, which means it’s almost time for fans to switch their focus back to college football. 

And with that, sportsbooks have released win totals for the regular season. 

Let’s dive into my favorite picks for how a few teams will perform this upcoming season. 

Florida State Under 6.5 wins

I’ve already written this up at U7.5 (-120). Under 7.5 wins is now north of (-200) at some books, so I will come back with U6.5 at plus money. 

The Seminoles were an embarrassing 2-10 last year. It was horrific in every sense of the word. FSU didn’t score more than 21 points against a single FBS team, and only three of its 10 losses came within one score. The QB position was a massive hole, as D.J. Uiagalelei was a disaster. To help fix the offensive woes, Gus Malzahn was brought in to run the offense and Boston College castoff Thomas Castellanos will be the new QB. 

Can Castellanos stand up to a year of running in Malzahn’s offense? That remains to be seen, as does whether the Noles have any playmakers on offense. 

Will FSU be as bad as 2-10 again? No. But I don’t know how much better it will be, as it has non-conference games on the road against Alabama and Florida, conference road games at Clemson and NC State, as well as facing Miami, which comes to Doak Campbell Stadium. That’s probably four — if not five — losses right there. And after last year, are we willing to give the Noles the benefit of the doubt at Virginia or Stanford? Or at home vs. Pitt, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech? I sure am not. 

This could very easily turn into another bowl-less season for the Noles. 

PICK: Florida State (+110, DK) Under 6.5 wins

Wisconsin Under 5.5 wins

The Badgers missed a bowl last year, and I think they will again next year. Recruiting has slipped, and the portal has been a net negative in Madison. I just don’t see how this is going to go well for Wisconsin. 

The Badgers will return to Alabama and visit Michigan, Oregon, Indiana and Minnesota. It’s not the easiest home slate either, with Iowa, Ohio State and Washington visiting Madison. 

There’s a chance the Badgers are 3-5 entering the Idle week; that would make for some uneasy chatter surrounding the program.

PICK: Wisconsin (-144, FD) Under 5.5 wins

Texas Tech Under 8.5 wins

The Red Raiders have invested a ton in the portal, which is great for their outlook. What isn’t great, however, are five road games — Arizona State, Houston, Kansas State, Utah and West Virginia — that appear loseable. 

Remember, too, that last year, Tech was great in one-score games (6-1) in a season where it won eight games. Will the close-game luck continue against a difficult road slate, even with an improvement in talent? 

I’m skeptical.

PICK: Texas Tech (-115, FD) Under 8.5 wins

Oregon Over 10.5 wins

This assumption that the Ducks are going to take a step back is a dangerous one. 

Few teams have recruited as well lately as Oregon, and the Ducks have been able to augment their roster through the portal like few others. QB Dante Moore was one of the most sought-after recruits in the country a couple of years ago, so I would expect him to play well — especially with one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the country. 

Also, the schedule is quite manageable. Oregon will be 4-0 when it heads to Penn State, and I, for one, am not penciling that game in as a loss for the Ducks. Oregon’s other road games are against Rutgers, Iowa and Washington. Its toughest home game is probably USC. 

Even with a loss at State College, 11-1 is very much on the table.

PICK: Oregon (+110, DK) Over 10.5 wins

LSU Under 8.5 wins

In the new world order of college football, people need to accept that 8-4 or 9-3 in the SEC might become the new normal and these teams are still really good — likely more talented than their record indicates. 

LSU might be the best example of this in 2025. 

The Tigers brought in a significant haul in the transfer portal and have a Heisman candidate and potential No. 1 overall pick at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. But this feels like the kind of schedule/season Alabama and Ole Miss had last year en route to a 9-3 regular season. 

Now, that record would be good enough to go Over 8.5 wins, but LSU has Clemson, Florida and Ole Miss. Both Clemson and Ole Miss are away from home within the first five games of the season. The Tigers also visit Alabama and Oklahoma, while hosting South Carolina and Texas A&M. 

At plus money, I’ll go Under. 

PICK: LSU (+128, FD) Under 8.5 wins

Purdue Under 3.5 wins

If you don’t want to lay close to $2, you can get U2.5 at plus money at DraftKings Sportsbook, but that eliminates any wiggle room after the Boilermakers likely beat Ball State and Southern Illinois. Bringing in Barry Odom is a good start, but expecting two Big Ten wins is a bit much for me, even with 17 new starters transferring in.

PICK: Purdue (-192, FD) Under 3.5 wins

Auburn Over 7.5 wins

The Tigers gave games away last year against Oklahoma and Missouri in a 5-7 season. The offense struggled quite a bit, but with Jackson Arnold brought in to play QB and Eric Singleton added to the receiver group along with Cam Coleman, as well as an offensive line full of upperclassmen, that has the potential to change dramatically. 

There are three built-in non-conference wins in the schedule, and the game at Baylor is certainly winnable. Your bet will either win or lose from mid-October to mid-November, when the Tigers face Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. But it’s very reasonable to expect eight wins — and possibly more. 

PICK: Auburn (-120, DK) Over 7.5 wins

Clemson Under 9.5 wins

Cade Klubnik and the young receivers are a good starting point, but a deep dive into Clemson’s 2024 season shows it wasn’t that impressive, despite winning the ACC title. 

The Tigers were blown out by Georgia, were non-competitive at home against Louisville, and lost a game at home to South Carolina. They flat-out stole a game from Pitt, so maybe they offset. SMU turnovers helped the Tigers gain an early lead in Charlotte. But the other wins — we’re talking either bad non-conference opponents or the bottom tier of the ACC. 

Clemson was a huge beneficiary of turnover margin, too, finishing fourth nationally, so basic regression can be expected. The schedule ramps up a little bit as well. Clemson opens against an SEC giant like it did last year — this time, LSU — but the road schedule is certainly full of pitfalls. 

Road games against Georgia Tech, Boston College (who should be pesky again with Bill O’Brien), Louisville and South Carolina. That’s potentially five loseable games. SMU at home won’t be a gimme either. 

Ten wins seem tough to come by. 

PICK: Clemson (+100, DK) Under 9.5 wins

Indiana Under 8.5 wins

Indiana’s non-conference schedule is as laughable as it was last season during its magical 11-2 season. Old Dominion, Indiana State and Kennesaw State are the sacrificial lambs this season, but after having road games at UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State last year (along with a blowout loss at Ohio State), the Hoosiers have to go to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. 

Assuming IU loses at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, it would have to run the table against Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin and Purdue to hit nine wins. 

The Hoosiers were third in the nation in turnover margin last year, turning it over just nine times. Is that going to happen again, even with the addition of one of the better portal quarterbacks, Fernando Mendoza from Cal?

PICK: Indiana (-122, FD) Under 8.5 wins

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!

---

---